It is a common accepted standard that experience is the best teacher. The common belief is that the more experience we have the wiser we become. However is this really true? Does the past help us predict the future?
Take into account the common swan, it is white and until the 17th century it is accepted that all swans are white. John Latham in 1790 shocked the world by discovering that the common swan is not always while, they are also black. This is somewhat a proof that not all we know are always true. How do we know what we know? Why do we never expect unexpected events? Herein lies the foundation of the Black Swan phenomenon.
In 2007 Nassim Nicholas Taleb published the book "The Black Swan" about our inability to predict the future from the past. The Black Swan is all about rejection of the cause-and-effect principle and reminds us that we tend to cling most tightly to pillars that we see toppling, hence our experience does not make us any wiser since we can't correctly predict the unexpected. Taleb of course made a lot of money during the financial crisis in 2008 to 2010.
Is this a new discovery? A new philosophy? Absolutely not! In 1912 Bertrand Russell wrote the book "The Problems of Philosophy" which provided answer to the difficult question of "Does the past help us predict the future?", and it is sadly NO. What we should acknowledge is that biggest catastrophes usually come as a complete surprise to us. That's why according to Russell, we should always questions the things we take for granted.
5 comments:
It is a normall accepted standard that humans like any other animals learn from their mistakes
Those who does not learn from history is bound to repeat it.
Even a mistake may turn out to be the one thing necessary to a worthwhile achievement.
A life spent making mistakes is not only more honorable but more useful than a life spent doing nothing.
It is the true nature of mankind to learn from mistakes, not from example.
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